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EIA: The net import of crude oil in the United States will drop by 20% in 2025. The us energy information administration (EIA) said on Tuesday that it is expected that the net import of crude oil in the United States will drop by 20% to 1.9 million barrels per day next year, which will be the lowest level since 1971, suggesting that the output of the United States will increase and the demand of refineries will decrease. EIA said in its Short-term Energy Outlook in December that the US oil production is expected to increase from 13.24 million barrels per day in 2024 to 13.52 million barrels per day in 2025. EIA also said that the crude oil processing capacity of refineries will be 16 million barrels per day in 2025, a decrease of 200,000 barrels per day compared with 2024. EIA now predicts that the average spot price of Brent crude oil in 2025 will be $73.58 per barrel, which is lower than the previous forecast of $76.06 per barrel. The average spot price of crude oil in the United States is $69.12 per barrel, which is lower than the last forecast of $71.60 per barrel.The "Debt Bull" was launched, and a number of treasury bonds futures reached new highs. According to the analysis, the downward trend of broad-spectrum interest rates is expected to continue to support the bull market in the bond market. On December 10, 30-year, 10-year, 5-year and 2-year treasury bonds futures all hit record highs. Looking at it for a long time, since the beginning of this year, 30-year treasury bond futures have risen by nearly 16%, 10-year treasury bond futures have risen by over 5%, and 5-year treasury bond futures have risen by over 3%. Analysts pointed out that the logic of broad-spectrum interest rate downward has run through the whole year of 2024, and it is expected to continue to form an important support for the bond market in the long run. The recent market strength is not only an emotional effect at the end of the year and the beginning of the year, but also a blocking point to dredge and guide the overall downward trend of interest rates. Shen Wanhongyuan believes that in the short term, profit-taking behavior may increase after the low interest rate, but this is not the core factor that dominates the market. Shen Wanhongyuan said that the rate cut of policy interest rate in 2025 may not be less than 30 basis points. After the deployment of relevant important meetings at the end of the year, specific policies may be gradually implemented in the first quarter of next year. According to Huaxi Securities, looking forward to 2025, the rate of single RRR cut and interest rate cut of monetary policy may not be less than 50 basis points and 20 basis points (the rate in 2024). (Securities Times)Goldman Sachs: "According to our basic forecast, the tanker freight will drop slightly in the next few years, but if the diversion of tankers in the Red Sea and Russia ends, the tanker freight will further drop by 30%."

Since the beginning of this year, six small and medium-sized banks have "refused to redeem" tier-2 capital bonds. On December 9, Yingkou Bank Co., Ltd. announced that when the 10-year tier-2 capital bonds issued by the bank in 2019 had expired, the bank chose not to redeem the bonds. In fact, a number of commercial banks have announced this year that they will not exercise the right to redeem secondary capital bonds, mainly small and medium-sized banks. The insiders believe that there are two main reasons why banks choose not to redeem secondary capital bonds. First, it is difficult for banks to refinance and issue capital replenishment tools due to factors such as high cost of new bonds and declining profitability. Second, the bank's capital adequacy ratio has been at a low level, and some banks' capital adequacy ratio has been lower than the regulatory requirements before redemption, and the capital level may further decline after exercising the redemption right. (Securities Daily)Ferrari CEO: Some parts of electric vehicles will be produced within the company, and other parts will be produced through strategic partners.On the eve of the release of CPI data in November, a newly released report said that the leadership of the Bureau of Labor Statistics should be responsible for a series of mistakes this year. These mistakes brought the institution under scrutiny. However, the report issued by an expert team composed of government and private sector members said that none of these incidents had anything to do with the quality or accuracy of the agency's core data work. The report added that no potential motives for dishonesty or malice were found. Previously, the CPI of the United States was leaked in advance in April, and in August, the preliminary annual benchmark revised data of the non-farm payrolls report was released more than 30 minutes after the original release time of 10: 00 a.m. The survey found that the modernization of technology and software of this institution was hindered by insufficient funds, which made it impossible to ensure that its processes and systems kept pace with technological progress. The investigation team proposed to re-plan the enterprise training for front-line staff and revise the emergency plan to reduce the risk of untimely release. It is reported that the US Bureau of Labor Statistics has removed contractors from key positions and limited these functions to federal staff.

NVIDIA's decline widened to 3%.CF40 Research: Three Channels to Expand Domestic Demand. An article published by Guan Wei of China Financial Forty Forum (CF40) pointed out that the expansion of total demand, whether it is to expand consumption or investment demand, should be implemented on credit growth. When credit goes up, residents, enterprises and governments have more money in their pockets, so do expenditures and incomes, as well as profits and investments. At present, there are three main ways to expand credit: first, fiscal policy is exerted and the government borrows money; Second, the monetary policy will exert its strength and reduce the policy interest rate; The third is to stabilize the real estate market, and there can be no further sharp decline. In terms of finance, maintain the intensity of fiscal expenditure in a broad sense, and moderately increase the fiscal deficit to 4% in 2025. In terms of monetary policy, we should take reducing the real interest rate as an important goal, continue to implement "strong interest rate reduction", and timely reduce the interest rate of structural monetary policy tools below the policy interest rate level. In terms of the property market, it will ease the current cash flow pressure faced by real estate enterprises and promote the real estate to stop falling and stabilize from both ends of supply and demand.Ferrari CEO: Ferrari's autonomous driving is meaningless, and our cars don't need autonomous driving. Cryptographic currency is not an investment opportunity for us, and it is expected that there will be no cryptocurrency on our balance sheet.